Canada Economics Update GDP growth heading toward zero in first quarter The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing market There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial growth in October, of 0.2% m/m, provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is likely to be weaker than Q3’s outturn of 0.8% q/q. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Nov.) November’s improvement in the headline construction PMI suggests that construction activity is holding up in the fourth quarter. However, the improvement in supply conditions in the commercial... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy escaped recession in Q3, and the rebound was much stronger than we’d expected. But growth will probably soften in Q4 due to weaker agricultural growth and the imposition of... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Retail spending to remain a soft spot in Russia’s recovery The recent slowdown in Russian retail spending appears to be close to bottoming out. But we doubt that retail sales will grow by any more than 2.0-2.5% y/y over the next twelve months. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Nov.) November’s falls in headline and core inflation highlight the lack of price pressures in Switzerland. And with GDP growth also weak, the SNB looks set to keep policy looser for longer than investors... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Demand concerns to the fore We continue to expect that slower economic growth in two of the largest consuming economies – the US and China – will weigh on commodity prices in 2019, even if China and the US manage to reach an... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower fuel inflation to be offset by rising food inflation Oil prices are up today, but the recent decline means that inflation will rise more slowly in Latin America over the next few months than we had previously thought. We still expect a majority of... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November primarily reflects the strength of domestic demand and provides some support to our forecast that GDP will expand by 2.7% annualised in the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run The latest batch of business surveys suggests that the slowdown in global manufacturing continued in November. In particular, there was no sign of a rebound in the euro-zone despite the end of the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French riots add to downside risks to outlook Riots over living costs in France have not altered our view that the economy will outperform most of its neighbours in the next two years. But they highlight how difficult it will be for President... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
