Capital Daily Loose monetary policy shouldn’t hold European currencies back 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Headline inflation to fall sharply in 2019 Headline inflation is set to decline in the coming months, due to the recent slump in oil prices, and we think it will remain below 2% in most advanced economies next year. Tightening labour markets... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank preparing for rate cuts in early 2019 The statement accompanying today’s decision by Turkey’s central bank to leave policy on hold suggests that the MPC is contemplating rate cuts. With inflation falling back and political pressure on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal troubles are not over Italy’s government has agreed to reduce its budget deficit forecast for next year, which reduces the risk of a crisis in the near term. But this does not spell the end of its fiscal troubles. With the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do non-prime to prime yield spreads suggest? At the all-property level, the difference between non-prime and prime yields does not suggest that either is mispriced. However, non-prime yields for shopping centres look low relative to prime yields... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to end tightening cycle next year In today’s statement, the Norges Bank clearly signalled that an interest rate hike in March is a near certainty. But beyond that, we think that lower oil prices will prompt the Bank to end its... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB takes a dovish turn The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting suggests that interest rates will be left unchanged over the next few months at least. We think a tightening cycle will start... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC won’t wait long if no deal avoided The latest labour market data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee could quickly turn hawkish if a no deal Brexit is avoided. In its November Inflation Report, the Bank of England forecast... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks edged lower in early December as domestic output fell back and inputs to refineries remained high. Stocks may fall further in the coming weeks, if refinery activity remains strong. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka political crisis: growth to slow, rates to rise With the political crisis in Sri Lanka showing no sign of coming to an end, we are changing our GDP growth and interest rate forecasts for next year. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed will need to reverse course in 2020 Our confidence in our long-held view that a shifting policy mix will cause economic growth to slow in 2019 has only strengthened in recent months. The turmoil in markets suggests that others are... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Inflation prospects suggest that Treasuries will continue rallying 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth has slowed, but recession risk small The euro-zone economy’s recent performance has been worse than we or the consensus expected. But for now at least, it seems to be a garden variety slowdown rather than something more worrying. The... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
