Capital Daily Flattening yield curve a worry, despite possible distortions 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Employment (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in October, from $54.6bn, was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The unexpectedly large widening of the trade deficit in October is a sign of things to come, as continued falls in energy prices in November will have pushed export values down further. The planned... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Surge in new home supply won’t crash house prices On past form the jump in the months’ supply of new homes to an eight-year high would be consistent with outright falls in national house prices. However, the existing home inventory is not far off... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 3.8% y/y in November, from 3.5% y/y in October, was driven entirely by higher food inflation. As a result, while the central bank Board meeting next Friday will be a... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How will a no deal Brexit impact UK property? We expect a no deal Brexit to bring a hit to UK commercial property capital values of between 5% and 9%, which will be mild compared with past crashes. Even in our central forecast, assuming a Brexit... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q3, of 3.5% of GDP, adds to the reasons to think that the Reserve Bank will tighten monetary policy a little further in the next few... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks to its guns Despite the recent slump in oil prices, the Bank of Canada confirmed today that it intends to raise interest rates at least three more times. However, we think that a deterioration in the economy will... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack More weakness ahead for US stock market Worries about the prospects for the US economy have contributed to the ongoing flattening of the US Treasury yield curve and the sell-off in the S&P 500. We think that both those trends will continue... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
