Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Domestic debt deleveraging continues The Fed’s latest Financial Accounts release shows that total domestic credit market debt fell back to a 12-year low of 326% of GDP in the third quarter, from a peak of 370% in early 2009. Admittedly... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) Speculation that the People’s Bank (PBOC) stepped up intervention last month to stabilise the exchange rate doesn’t appear to be borne out by the data on its FX reserves. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank and Norges Bank turning more dovish At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Swiss National Bank is set to reiterate its ultra-dovish stance. Meanwhile, recent developments in Sweden and Norway suggest that policymakers in both... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) House price inflation on the Halifax index paused in November. With house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, we expect house price growth to stay sluggish over... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data for Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to bounce back strongly after Q3’s slowdown in GDP growth. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to acknowledge risks shifting to the downside While the ECB will confirm the end of its net asset purchases at its December meeting, it will keep its options open about the future path of policy. The weakness of recent data may well lead it to... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Surging supply weighs on oil prices Oil prices slumped in November as rising production in the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia prompted fears of oversupply. The market is now hoping that OPEC and its allies will agree to cut output, which... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the surveys overstating the impact of Brexit again? The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal. As such, economic activity... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks fell sharply at end-November for the most part owing to a jump in US exports, which could be sustained given that crude prices in the US are still markedly lower than elsewhere. 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Entering 2019 on a weaker footing The latest surveys and hard data suggest that the world economy has not regained any momentum in Q4. While the recent slump in oil prices should support global growth, we think that activity will... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in November due to a sharp drop in fuel price inflation. But with core inflation likely to remain elevated for a while yet, we think the... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to make of the inverted yield curve The sharp flattening of the yield curve, which has now inverted between two and five years out, is consistent with our view that economic growth is set to slow significantly next year. We currently... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium’s golden days may not return The price of palladium rose above that of gold earlier this week for the first time since 2002, but gold has returned to a premium today and we think this premium will grow as the palladium price... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
