UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Nov.) Although investment activity has picked up gradually over 2018, the low value of deals completed in November suggests that commercial property investment will struggle to reach 2017 totals this year... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) Amid growing concerns over a glut in the market, OPEC and its allies pledged to cut output. We estimate that these cuts will remove much of the apparent excess supply in the market, but think that the... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower interest rates not enough to boost home sales We expect home sales will end 2020 only slightly higher than they are today. Admittedly, the drop in mortgage interest rates seen over the past few weeks has given a boost to mortgage applications... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The recent plunge in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation down to 2.2% in November and will exert further downward pressure over the coming months. More important for the Fed is the continued... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in October was driven partly by a collapse in mining output, but other parts of industry also struggled. October’s disappointing... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Strong economy keeps gradual tightening on track The recent volatility in financial markets will not stop the Fed raising rates at its meeting next week. A bigger concern for the Fed is the renewed weakness in core inflation, which may prompt some... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Although industrial production growth remains strong and core inflation is staying elevated, with headline inflation down sharply and an ally of Prime Minister Modi, Shaktikanta Das, the new head of... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc futures are right to be in backwardation The price of zinc has fallen sharply since June but what is more remarkable is that the futures curve has shifted into a steep backwardation. We forecast that zinc prices will continue to drop in 2019... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Appointment of Modi loyalist a worrying step for RBI The first briefing from the RBI’s new governor, Shaktikanta Das, sought to provide assurance that the central bank will continue to prioritise inflation fighting. But his background at the finance... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production provides some grounds for optimism that GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q4. But the big picture is that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leadership challenge triggered: what next? There are a myriad of different ways in which the UK political situation could play out. We can glean from recent markets moves that a disorderly Brexit would probably prompt sterling to fall further... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland tightening cycle not over yet The Central Bank of Iceland left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly that hikes are on the horizon. We think that it will raise interest rates twice next year, leaving the deposit rate... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don’t bank on the US stock market recovering in 2019 Although the S&P 500 has already fallen by roughly 10% since early October, we don’t expect it to rebound in 2019. Given the outlook for the US economy, we think that it will end next year even lower... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in core inflation in November further decreases the chances of the Riksbank raising rates next week. Nonetheless, we still expect the first hike in February as underlying inflation is... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
