Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery regaining momentum After a disappointing Q3, leading indicators suggest that Russia’s economy strengthened in Q4. We expect that GDP growth will rebound to around 1.8-2.0% y/y over the quarter as whole. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Dip in mortgage interest rates boosts housing demand A drop in mortgage interest rates in November led to a welcome boost in mortgage demand, which has risen to a five-month high. That should provide some support to home sales over the next month or two... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US financials unlikely to keep outperforming in 2019 In contrast to their relatively strong performance over the last decade, we expect financials in the US to fare worse in general than their counterparts in the euro-zone and the UK next year. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Oct.) The weaker GDP figures for October seem to be mainly a reflection of the unwinding of some temporary factors which had boosted growth in Q3, rather than a significant slowdown in underlying activity... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market slowdown to continue Our outlook for the housing market is weak. Admittedly, the recent rise in mortgage approvals and housing transactions offered a little relief for the market. But leading indicators suggest that those... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa land reform: More Taiwan than Zimbabwe The move towards land expropriation without compensation in South Africa has prompted fears of a Zimbabwe-style ‘land grab’. But examples from Asia show that land reform can be a success. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s unexpectedly-sharp rise in inflation in Norway is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s mind about leaving policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting. The Bank is likely to raise interest rates... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economy accelerated very slightly in Q3, but conditions remained very weak. Headwinds, including low oil prices, are still building, adding to the downside risks to our view that growth will... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in November and we expect it to fall further over the coming months. The central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting later this month, but we... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC gives a boost to prices in the near term The 1.2m bpd output cut announced by OPEC and its allies today should absorb much of the oil market surplus in the short term. As such, it has sparked a rally in oil prices and in commodities more... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly PMI’s too pessimistic, 50 shades of Brexit The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal rather than an actual fall in... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
