US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m rise in headline industrial production last month was entirely due to a surge in mining and utilities output, which will be reversed over the coming months. The bigger story is the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.9% m/m surge in underlying retail sales in November, which followed an upwardly-revised 0.7% gain in October, suggests that real consumption growth has remained stronger in the fourth quarter... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Amidst the chaos, downside Brexit risk to growth dwindles After another turbulent week in UK politics, we are no closer to knowing what form Brexit will take. Nonetheless, we think that the chances of a softer Brexit or no Brexit – which would be sterling... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch An uncomfortable wait for Brexit clarity In normal times, the MPC would be preparing the ground for another interest rate hike. After all, pay growth has picked up far more sharply than the Bank of England had anticipated. But as it is still... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB outdoves itself, Nordics more hawkish Central bank meetings in Norway and Iceland this week suggested that interest rate hikes are on the horizon in both economies. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank again signalled that it won’t raise... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary courts controversy, Russian economy picking up The creation of a controversial parallel new court system in Hungary – signed into law on Wednesday – will bring the government into further conflict with Brussels, but the economic impact is only... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank lays ground for another hike Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforced our impression that another hike in interest rates is likely over the next few months. We now expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London rental growth at an inflection point Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand to hike rates, peso to fall further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to raise its policy rate for the first time since 2011 at its meeting on Wednesday due to concerns about accelerating credit growth. Meanwhile, having widened to a... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI was almost entirely driven by a sharp drop in France, perhaps suggesting that the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests have had a serious economic effect. But even... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Oil and housing to weigh on growth The economy is set to weather the slump in oil prices better than it did in 2015, but it will not escape unscathed. The housing market looks shaky and there are signs that higher interest rates are... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Effect of stockpiling on growth will be small We are not convinced by the argument that stockpiling ahead of Brexit will provide a big boost to GDP growth over the coming months and prompt an abrupt fall thereafter. Given that a large proportion... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s growing caution raises chance of later rate hikes While the ECB has ended its net asset purchases, it plans to reinvest funds from maturing securities for a long time to come and has stressed that any future rate hikes will depend on a build-up of... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
