UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) A surge in sales of household goods due to Black Friday spending helped retail sales to rebound in November. But December might be a little weaker as consumers probably bought some Christmas presents... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s surprise hike unlikely to be a one-off The Riksbank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today supported our long-held call that it would tighten policy more aggressively than investors anticipate. But there is a clear risk that a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia set to raise interest rates next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates unchanged at 6.0% is unlikely to mark the end of the tightening cycle given the likelihood of further falls in the rupiah over the... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Gold on the road to recovery The price of gold has slowly and steadily risen in recent weeks to a 5-month high ahead of last night’s US Federal Reserve meeting. In this Metals Watch, we explain why we believe this rally in the... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update French bonds likely to remain under pressure in 2019 Even if the domestic situation in France has calmed down, the underlying causes of the recent unrest linger. What’s more, we think that France has become more vulnerable to contagion risks from Italy. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A small drop in US stocks coupled with signs of solid growth in products demand suggest that some of the market’s fears about oversupply may be overdone. We continue to expect that the output cuts... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily “Dovish” Fed hike not likely to turn the tide for the S&P 500 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November, and a recovery in mortgage demand over the past month suggests they will see further gains over the turn of the year. But with... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget dispute raises risk of debt ceiling crisis in 2019 A partial government shutdown this Friday would probably have only a modest impact on the economy. With the current gridlock only likely to intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November’s sharp decline in headline inflation reflects the recent slump in energy prices. But with two of the three core inflation measures softening too, there’s even more reason for the Bank of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November add to the evidence that, after expanding by a tepid 1.5% y/y in Q3, the economy has regained momentum in Q4. We expect that this recovery will be sustained over the... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: President Buhari promises policy continuity President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 spending plan would cut the federal deficit and leave key policies unchanged. Given political uncertainties, however, today’s speech is a poor guide to policy... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Key calls for 2019, and how we differ from consensus We expect Emerging Asia to grow at its weakest rate in 2019 since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With inflation also set to drop back, the regional tightening cycle is likely to come to an end... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
