Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo’s 2019 budget: tacking back to the centre? The prudent 2019 budget presented by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) at the weekend is probably an attempt to try to get investors back onside after a series of policy moves which... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2019 China’s economic slowdown looks set to deepen next year, weighing on equity prices and the renminbi. Policy stimulus should put a floor beneath growth before the year is out but won’t drive a strong... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will house price falls in the UK be confined to London? London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The electric vehicles boom won’t boost nickel in 2019 In recent months, the price of nickel has plummeted as investor sentiment has waned on concerns about demand. We think that prices will drop in 2019 as growth in global supply remains strong and... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little festive cheer for commodities The prices of most commodities, including oil, traded in a narrow range this week, at least until Friday when weak economic data out of China prompted a synchronised fall in prices. We suspect that... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown will be biggest downside risk in 2019 As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and only 1.2% in 2020. Markets apparently believe... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB yields slide, tourists turn away Ten-year Japanese government bond yields this week dropped back to below their level when the Bank of Japan widened the tolerance band in July. The stealth tightening that some talked of at the time... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the Brexit risks for sterling We think that there is more upside, than downside, risk for sterling when we weigh up the potential outcomes that could result from the chaos surrounding the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys a sign of things to come Markit’s flash PMIs ended the year on a weak note, signalling the start of a US slowdown and pointing to weaker world trade growth at the beginning of 2019, despite the US-China truce on tariffs. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
