Latin America Economics Update Three questions on Mexico’s airport bond saga The Mexico City airport bond dispute appears to be at an impasse and, if the wrangle drags on, sovereign bond yields are likely to drift up, and Banxico would be more likely to hike interest rates... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines: current account deficit hits record in Q3 One of the key risks to the Philippines over the coming year is a further widening of the current account deficit. Data released earlier in the week showed the deficit widened to 3.0% of GDP in the... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The global slowdown is beginning to weigh more on the Canadian factory sector, with manufacturing sales values declining by 0.1% m/m in October. Admittedly, sales volumes increased by 0.2% m/m, but... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts dropped to an 18-month low in November, but we expect a modest rise in starts over the next couple of years. Builders have scaled back production in response to slowing... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What to expect in 2019 Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened and... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed in Q3, but this has already been overshadowed by the de-escalation of the political crisis. With further fiscal tightening on the horizon, growth is likely to remain... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key commodity calls for 2019 Slower global economic growth will prove too much of a headwind for most commodity prices in 2019. What’s more, investor sentiment towards risky assets more generally is likely to deteriorate. These... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus A medical on healthcare property: do claims stack up? Demographic changes clearly favour UK healthcare property. However, the recent strength in investment and returns does not seem to have fully accounted for the cyclical nature of the nursing and care... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) to a twenty-seven month low adds to evidence that the slowdown in Germany is more than just a soft patch. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Student loans won’t tie the Chancellor’s hands Today’s announcement of a change to how student loans will be classified in the public finances increases the risk that the Government misses its main fiscal target. But this shouldn’t cause investors... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What ‘serious consequences’ could China mean? If the emerging diplomatic spat with China escalates further, there are a number of measures that China could use to inflict economic damage on Canada. But given that Canada’s trade exposures to China... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: paving the way for a weaker pound The past month has brought signs that Egyptian policymakers are trying to simplify the country’s exchange rate setup, which is ultimately likely to result in a weaker pound. Over the past six months... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Making sense of the jump in the USD 3m LIBOR-OIS spread 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
