Latin America Economics Update Argentina: more to net trade boost than weaker peso GDP data released last night confirmed that Argentina entered a technical recession in Q3 and, while net trade provided a positive contribution to growth, we don’t think that this can be pinned solely... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Thanks to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, the fall in inflation in November is likely to be the precursor to a larger fall in December. Inflation could even reach the 2% target, bringing some... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Oct.) House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail yields increase Capital values fell on a monthly basis in November for the first time since 2016. In turn, annual capital value growth slowed to just 3.3%. The main driver of the slowdown was an upward movement in... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fall in inflation gives central banks breathing space The fall in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month was surprisingly sharp, which in part was due to lower oil prices but also (and more unexpectedly) a dip in food inflation. One... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No further tightening likely in Thailand Today’s rate hike by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is unlikely to mark the start of a prolonged tightening cycle. In fact, with growth likely to slow in 2019 and inflation set to remain very weak, we... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: wishful thinking Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2019 outlined further fiscal loosening but the government seems to be relying on optimistic assumptions for oil prices to rise to almost $80pb. If prices stay low as we... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turning the corner The recent slowdown in Latin American growth appears to have passed its trough. Our regional GDP Tracker suggests that output rose by around 1.3-1.5% y/y at the start of Q4, up from a low point of... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads likely to rise further Although corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone have already risen a long way, we think that they will continue to increase as concerns about growth in the region intensify. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices to run out of steam Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Assessing several “bellwethers” of the world economy Having considered seven commonly-cited indicators of the state of global economic growth, we conclude that trade volumes and Markit’s PMI surveys provide the best guide to the state of activity in... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Weakness of US equities unlikely to be reversed next year 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints that tightening is on its way The statement accompanying today’s Hungarian MPC meeting provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are shifting towards the start of a tightening cycle. For our part, we think that interest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Xi signals state sector to remain dominant Hopes that President Xi would use his speech today on the 40th anniversary of the start of China’s “Reform and Opening Up” to announce a renewed push for market-based reforms were disappointed. Rather... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
