Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Dec.) & Sweden Production (Nov.) December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the euro-zone We are revising our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone and now expect GDP to increase by only 1% this year and a bit less in 2020. Core inflation is also likely to be around 1% this year... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell in the first week of 2019 and domestic production was unchanged. The hefty gains in refined product stocks, despite the dip in the refinery utilisation rate, make it clear that... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Having experienced capital inflows of almost $150bn in 2017, we estimate that EMs suffered capital outflows of around $70bn in 2018. Our Tracker suggests that the pace of capital outflows eased... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Too soon to assume Fed will repeat 2016 climb-down There is a clear possibility that, as in early 2016, slowing global growth and further weakness in financial markets will prompt the Fed to abandon its plans to continue hiking interest rates. With... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s forecasts still too optimistic Despite slashing its economic growth forecast to below potential, the Bank of Canada reiterated today that it judges that more rate hikes will be needed to ensure that inflation remains in line with... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Dec.) Weakness in investment in December likely reflects investors holding fire due to uncertainty but, even so, we do not expect investment to rebound in 2019. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The slowdown in narrow money growth to a 10-year low in November is nothing to fear because it mainly reflects a shift in the portfolio demand for money. With broad money and bank loans expanding at a... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily A trade deal probably wouldn’t give equities long-lasting relief 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: dollar peg to stay intact but growth to be weak The fall in oil prices since late last year has cast the spotlight on to Oman’s weak balance sheet and caused the rial to come under pressure. The country’s neutral stance in regional politics means... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation, from 4.7% y/y in November to 4.8% y/y in December, means that another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.50%) at next month’s meeting is still likely. However, this will... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A weak end to the year Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three big “non-consensus” calls for 2019 Three big “non-consensus” calls for 2019 on our Global Markets service are i) developed market government bonds will outperform developed market equities; ii) emerging market equities won’t bottom out... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The recent weakness of headline consumer price inflation, which we think dropped a little further in December, has undermined the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But we are more... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Dec. 18) & Riksbank Minutes The drop in headline inflation in Switzerland in December is a sign of things to come, as inflation is set to fall to just above zero in the coming months. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Riksbank’s... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
