UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update If the Brexit fog clears, will investment rebound? If a Brexit deal is secured, the release of pent-up demand will help investment activity. But, with interest rates rising and valuations looking stretched in many sectors, it’s unlikely that there... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Meaningful Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The resounding defeat of May’s Brexit deal in Parliament by a huge 230 votes this evening is a very bad result for the Prime Minister but could prove to be a good result for the near-term outlook for... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the euro and euro-zone assets The outlook for the euro-zone economy has deteriorated sharply in recent months, prompting us to revise down our growth forecasts for the region. In this Update we discuss the implications of these... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A meaningful vote for sterling Either a narrow or a heavy defeat in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight would probably prompt the pound to rise. An inconclusive moderate defeat would arguably be the... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of GDP for 2018, and comments by the Federal Statistics Office, suggest that Germany narrowly avoided a recession last year. But this is of limited comfort: the bigger picture... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Policymakers have been making a coordinated effort today to provide reassurance that more stimulus is in the pipeline. But today’s data showing growth of outstanding credit still at its slowest pace... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Flirting with zero Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has been flirting with zero since the start of the year. Not so long ago, it was climbing towards the 0.2% ceiling of the “tolerance band” managed by the Bank of... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Reaction to China trade data may provide a template for 2019 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Remortgaging set to peak in 2019 After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
