US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The drop in mortgage applications in December, even as interest rates saw further falls, supports our view that lower financing costs will not be enough to boost housing market activity in 2019. A... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Solid momentum, low oil prices boost outlook Strong growth in Q3 and the recent fall in oil prices suggest that Kenya’s economy will perform well going into 2019. Despite lingering structural problems, we’ve raised our growth forecast for this... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for total returns in 2019 Commercial property returns are expected to moderate considerably in 2019 and risks are clearly to the downside. But if we are right and GDP growth rebounds this year, the outlook for office and... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Dec.) Softer construction activity is likely to be temporary, held back by political uncertainty and weaker demand. We think that any recovery in construction activity will be limited as labour market... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More of the same in 2019 Clear signs of a slowdown in China’s economy, coupled with falls in global equity markets, weighed on the prices of most energy and industrial commodity prices in December. In contrast, the prices of... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Little reason for Bank to cheer at start of New Year With the sudden slump in oil prices over the last three months likely to weigh heavily on economic growth, and fears of a global downturn building, we expect the Bank to keep rates unchanged and... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys set tone for 2019 Markit’s global manufacturing PMI dropped again in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2018 on a weaker footing. We think that activity will lose further momentum this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains to bounce back Our model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.6%. Base effects mean that annual wage growth probably declined to 2.9%. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs dampen any new year optimism Commodity prices are mostly falling on the first day of trading in 2019 as China’s December PMIs showed that the economy finished 2018 on a weak note. While the authorities are loosening policy, we... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Despite the headline manufacturing PMI hitting a six-month high in December, the sector probably stagnated at the end of 2018. There were some signs, though, that worries of an impending no deal... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the global cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
