Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s thinking full of holes Governor Stephen Poloz struck a positive tone following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week. Although officials remain optimistic, we think there are flaws in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pension reform push, Mexico fuel shortages Brazil’s government is reportedly close to agreeing a pension reform bill, but we still think that political realities may end up diluting or stalling welfare reform. Elsewhere, the Mexican government... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How patient will the Fed be? With financial markets rebounding this week and the incoming domestic activity data relatively strong, we still expect the “patient” Fed to raise interest rates this year. But core PCE inflation looks... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Waiting for the Brexit handbrake to be released The most likely Brexit outcome, for now at least, appears to be a delay of a few months beyond March. While this means that we will have to wait a little longer for the Brexit handbrake on the economy... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier risks A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in November – the second consecutive monthly fall – all but confirms that overall GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4. As things stand, following... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.1% m/m fall in headline consumer prices in December won’t concern the Fed as it can be explained by the plunge in gasoline prices. But the 0.2% m/m gain in core prices, which left the core CPI... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank will tighten very slowly Recent developments suggest that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will tightening monetary policy more slowly than we had previously anticipated. This is partly because we have revised down our... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharp drop in industrial production growth in November is in large part linked to the shift in the timing of the Diwali holidays last year. Near-term prospects for industry remain fairly upbeat. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT to loosen policy, rapid CEE growth unlikely to last Further evidence this week that the Turkish economy is in the midst of a severe recession adds to the reasons to expect that the MPC will cut interest rates next week. Meanwhile, another batch of... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a seven-month low of 3.7% y/y in December, coming alongside the continued strength of the real, means the central bank is likely to strike a more dovish line in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Monthly Estimate (Nov.) The easing in GDP growth in the three months to November leaves growth only a little below the rates seen before the temporary factors of the World Cup and the unusually hot weather boosted it in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Robust growth in South Africa, coup foiled in Gabon South African output data released this week suggested that the economy slowed a touch in Q4. Even so, growth was still pretty strong by recent standards. Elsewhere, a coup attempt in Gabon revived... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Official targets point to low expectations for 2019 The economic targets for 2019 that have been leaked this week signal official acknowledgement that China’s growth is slowing. Nonetheless, the low target for the fiscal deficit suggests that... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Poor outlook for Korea, investment surges in Vietnam With President Moon-Jae-in doubling down on his labour market policies, job growth in Korea is likely to remain weak. We think the economy this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2009. Meanwhile... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
