Global Markets Update Our forecasts still favour bonds over equities in 2019 We remain of the view that slower growth in the US and Chinese economies will push stock markets down sharply again this year, and prevent the yields of high-grade bonds from rising much, if at all... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update New UK economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New gold and silver price forecasts We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens. 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2019 hold in store for CEE? Weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic demand will weigh on GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year and our forecasts are below consensus. Looser fiscal policy should make... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update A downward revision to the 2019 oil price forecast Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The stock market slump is not over In spite of the recovery that has taken hold since the turn of the year, we think that equities have further to fall. It is well known that UK stock indices are heavily weighted towards energy... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to remain low as euro-zone economy slows 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong withstand a property crash? With property sales slowing and monetary conditions likely to remain tight over the coming year, there are growing concerns about a possible slump in home prices in Hong Kong. We expect prices to fall... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB losing its optimism The account of the ECB’s last meeting confirms that the Governing Council was less confident about the economic outlook, even in mid-December. While policy loosening is very unlikely for now, the... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s slowdown in manufacturing growth supports our view that GDP growth eased in Q4 after a very strong Q3. But activity still remained strong (by local standards) and we think that headline... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies unlikely to recover in 2019 Lower prices of commodities have weighed on the currencies of those countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. Although we generally do not anticipate further large falls in prices in 2019, we... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Election will be turning point for the economy Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of this year. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
