US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The far bigger than expected 312,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in December would seem to make a mockery of market fears of an impending recession. Admittedly, employment is a coincident indicator... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The 9,000 increase in employment in December was better than expected and, encouragingly, suggests that November’s bumper 94,000 gain was more than just a statistical quirk. But for anyone who still... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What to watch out for in European property in 2019 Commercial property capital values will rise again in 2019, supported by an improved outlook for yields, which will, at a European level, edge slightly lower this year. However, a weakening economic... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing slowdown to persist in 2019 2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) The uncertainty hanging over the economy prevented households from committing to much unsecured or mortgage borrowing in November. But at least there is still little sign that they have decided to... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth in Kenya, MTN settles in Nigeria Figures released in Kenya this week have strengthened our view that the country will be one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies of 2019. Meanwhile, the settlement between South African telecoms... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak end to 2018, rate cuts likely in the Philippines Data published over the past week show that Emerging Asia ended 2018 on a soft note, a trend we expect to continue into 2019. Meanwhile, a further sharp drop in inflation in the Philippines in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth to remain weak despite added policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Dec.) Despite the small rise in the headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December, it is quite clear that economic growth slowed in Q4. But we think this survey is once again overstating the... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Putting the slump in the S&P 500 into perspective The S&P 500 has already fallen to around 2,450, a bit below our once-bearish end-2019 forecast of 2,500. This is causing us to question whether it will even end the year that high. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Consistent with the softness seen in investment and development activity, net lending was subdued in November. And with capital and rental value growth expected to slow further in 2019, a sustained... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy prices remain under pressure Oil prices continued to fall last month and we expect them to remain subdued given that, for now at least, the market is more than comfortably supplied. That said, the production cut announced by OPEC... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The sharp fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in December, from 59.3, echoes the deterioration in the other manufacturing surveys and suggests that the slowdown in global growth is starting to... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
