Global Economics Update World set for slowest growth since financial crisis Recent downward revisions to our forecasts for advanced economies, particularly for the euro-zone, mean that we now think that global growth will fall by 2020 to its slowest pace since the financial... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% seasonally-adjusted rise in house prices in December masked very divergent trends between cities. Sales-to-new listing ratios suggest that this divergence will widen in the coming months... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: what happens next? In this Update we set out what might happen with Brexit over the coming days and months. We have already illustrated how the various Brexit outcomes would influence the economy and financial markets... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in December further diminishes the case for rate hikes in the near term. The RBI’s new governor seems keen to lower rates but, with core inflation still... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what can we learn from past easing cycles? Past experience suggests that the macroeconomic conditions are now in place for the Turkish MPC to start reversing last year’s monetary tightening. We expect the one-week repo rate to be cut by 50bp... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The broad-based slump in industrial production in November underlines how serious the malaise is in Europe’s industrial sector. While the euro-zone may have eked out a small increase in GDP in Q4, it... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybeans not out of the woods yet The trade talks between the US and China last week ended on a positive note, but the lack of any details dashed hopes of imminent relief for the ailing US soybean sector. Indeed, even if a deal is... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil bucks the negative trend in China’s trade data China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in December. Admittedly, oil imports rose strongly but this was probably opportunistic buying on the back of the slump in price rather than a sign... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth dropped more than anticipated in December as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade to remain the focus of markets The prices of most commodities rose this week, buoyed by a surge in the oil price, firmer equity prices and optimism about progress in the US-China trade talks. We think that some sort of face-saving... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG prices to follow coal and oil downwards Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Unemployment nearing a floor, wage confusion It increasingly appears that Japan’s unemployment rate is bottoming out. Recent data suggest that wage growth is picking up, but the surge that some policymakers had hoped for at this point in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
