Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese imports After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Borrowing costs an increasing drag on investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain exceptionally tight, although higher interest rates are restraining business investment. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers less willing, rather than less able to spend It looks as though the festive period was fairly underwhelming for the retail sector. But Christmas sales don’t tend to set the tone for the next year, and we think the weakness is mainly due to... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update One small step … China has announced a (small) increase in its reported official sector gold holdings for the first time in over two years, but regardless of whether this is repeated in the near future, central bank... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage demand stalls despite fall in interest rates Mortgage interest rates saw further declines in December, and look set to drop back to 4.5% over the next few weeks. However, a spike in mortgage applications for home purchase in the first half of... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Powell and Mnuchin Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even if President Donald Trump actually had the power to do so, would do little in practical terms to change the future course of monetary policy. Arguably the bigger... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New home supply will weigh on house prices Given the huge amount of new supply set to reach the housing market this year, the recent deterioration in home sales is bad news for house prices. While house price weakness will be painful, the end... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The further widening of the trade deficit in November mainly reflected a sharp drop in export values due to the recent slump in oil prices. Nevertheless, non-energy export volumes also fared poorly... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) A strong batch of ESIs for December provided some positive news for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the recent release of a poor set of PMIs and a raft of weak activity... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Falls in real estate equities overstate weakness Falls in real estate equity values over the turn of the year suggest that all-property capital values could decline by 10% y/y. However, we think these movements overstate the weakness. Even so, the... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s decline in German industrial production adds to the evidence that the euro-zone’s largest economy grew at a meagre pace in Q4. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why this isn’t likely to be a 2016 re-run for equity markets 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
