US Economics Weekly Fiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe The negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff are, as we always expected, going down to the wire. This is supposed to be political theatre. The failure of Boehner's "Plan B" illustrates that any deal has... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly How will 2013 differ from 2012? Our bearish call a year ago for moderate to weak GDP growth, subdued inflation and prolonged low interest rates is looking prescient now that the slumping housing market threatens to upset Canada's... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income/Spend. & Durable Goods (Nov.) November's personal income/spending and durable goods reports suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a little stronger than we previously thought. We are revising our forecast up from 1.5% to... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 12) Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) The 0.3% m/m bounce back in retail sales volumes in October, together with the large increase in wholesale trade reported yesterday, suggest that monthly GDP inched higher, stronger than the... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn intensifies A prolonged housing downturn means that economic growth will be much weaker over the next two years. Gains in business investment and somewhat better export growth, though, will help to buffer... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov. 12) The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industry stagnating There are some signs that the recent stagnation in manufacturing output won’t last long. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in December and, although the headline index of the ISM... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderating housing trends mimic US slowdown The continued decline in existing home sales support our view that a potentially severe housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower heading into next year, then sharper... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will 2013 be a break-out year for the US economy? We anticipate that US GDP growth will be a modest 2.0% in 2013, before picking up to 2.5% in 2014. There are still downside risks, particularly the possibility of a renewed crisis in the euro-zone or... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed's latest announcement that it will be doubling its open-ended QE3 purchases to $85bn per month means that we can expect a large increase in the monetary base in 2013. As with previous rounds... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stance We welcome the Fed’s decision to link the timing of its first interest rate hike to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But this tweak didn’t actually alter the stance of... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the western provinces outperform in 2013? Canada's western provinces, which have outperformed most other provinces over the past two years, are likely to remain on top in 2013. High oil and other commodity prices should continue to benefit... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
