Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct. 12) October's discouraging 2.4% m/m drop in manufacturing sales volumes together with the soft external trade data, released earlier this week, suggest that the economy stalled in October. Accordingly... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rebound in household formation to support rental market Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov. 12) November’s retail sales figures didn’t alter our view that consumption is struggling to find momentum. With consumer confidence now falling, hopes that retailers would enjoy a robust holiday shopping... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed adopts new thresholds and expands QE3 The Fed's adoption of numerical thresholds is, in practical terms, just a tweak in the framework used to signal how long it expects to leave short-term rates at near-zero. Based on the FOMC's new... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct. 12) October's flat export volumes are a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. In addition, the widespread decline in imports hints at a slowing domestic economy. Overall, the data suggest that... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in HARP refinancing continues The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct. 12) October’s trade release is the latest to look worse than it really is due to the effects of superstorm Sandy. Nonetheless, another year of tepid global growth will mean that the external sector... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment decline likely to worsen The declining trend in housing starts supports our view that a housing correction is underway. The slump in new and existing home sales suggest that this slowdown will worsen next year, hitting the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rise in confidence never looked justified The rise in consumer confidence to a five-year high in November can’t be explained by developments in equity prices, gasoline prices, the labour market or the housing market. As such, it’s no surprise... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business spending renaissance won't improve productivity The recent improvement in business capital spending has prompted speculation that a business productivity renaissance is at hand. This seems like wishful thinking. The majority of the growth in recent... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp drop in December's University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 74.5, from 82.7, suggests that the looming fiscal cliff has finally started to take a toll... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprisingly strong 59,300 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) seems far too good for an economy that is still growing below its potential rate. Given the uncertain... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report is something of a mixed bag but, on balance, it's a positive. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 146,000 last month, well above the consensus... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus 2013 – make or break? 2013 could be the year in which a number of factors that have been holding back the US economic recovery are removed. This doesn’t mean the economy will soon start firing on all cylinders. But it does... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Shifting up the gears The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
