Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 12 1st Estimate) The 0.1% q/q decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth is going to get everybody very excited today, but this isn't the start of a new recession. First-quarter GDP growth is going to be pretty weak because... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q4/Nov) The fact that the housing recovery is being driven principally by investor demand means that the slight decline in the homeownership rate in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be the last. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal deficit elimination goal may face longer delays An underperforming economy will make it tougher for the federal government to eliminate its budget deficit worth just over 1% of GDP. Although some headway has been made this year, weak underlying... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec. 12) Business investment apparently enjoyed an unexpected renaissance over the final few months of last year, only getting stronger as the fiscal cliff deadline got closer. Durable goods orders increased... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will New York City's housing market continue outperforming? House prices and residential sales activity in New York City look set to underperform the wider US housing market over the next few years. Valuations in NYC are less favourable than elsewhere, the... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic slack likely to persist The Bank of Canada and International Monetary Fund still expect economic growth in Canada to accelerate through the course of this year. Admittedly, net exports are unlikely to remain a drag on GDP... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Republicans picking their battles The Republicans opted to raise the debt ceiling temporarily because they believed it was politically expedient to link their demands for spending cuts to one of the many other potential budget... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The surprising drop in December's official core inflation rate to 1.1%, from 1.2% in November, suggests that there is much more slack in the economy than most economists previously thought. With sub... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec. 12) It’s a disappointment that the level of new home sales in December was no higher than it was seven months earlier in May. But December’s new home sales report isn’t as bad as it first appears. 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Markit PMI leading the way or the odd one out? By pointing to an acceleration in manufacturing output growth to around 8% per year, the Markit manufacturing PMI is probably a bit too upbeat. After all, it stands out as being much more optimistic... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for substantial improvement in labour market The first FOMC meeting of the New Year, which concludes next Wednesday (30th January), is unlikely to bring any major changes coming, as it does, only six weeks after the Fed expanded its large-scale... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec. 12) The number of existing home sales fell in December, but the underlying trend in sales remains upwards. Moreover, supply conditions are still very tight. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
