Canada Chart Pack Export growth likely to remain hard fought Global manufacturing PMI data for November indicate that Canada's non-energy exports will remain broadly stagnant in the near term. The recovery in US home building and auto sales, however, should... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence suggest below potential Q4 GDP Although the monthly small business optimism index fell back in November, the quarterly average of our seasonally adjusted measure still points to fourth-quarter GDP growth of just below 2.0%... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Mortgage applications for home purchase ticked up slightly in November and are now rising year-on-year. While the bigger picture is still that demand for purchase mortgages remains very subdued, this... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US fiscal cliff unlikely to destabilise Mexican economy Fears about the looming fiscal cliff have caused US businesses and households to defer spending plans, in the process contributing to the recent slowdown in the Mexican economy. But with an abrupt... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to replace twist with more QE It looks like the Fed will replace its expiring Operation Twist with an expansion of the assets it is purchasing under the QE3 programme. We expect that the Fed will use next week's two-day FOMC... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada is still clinging to the possibility that its policy rate might need to rise from the current 1% because it is too early to tell whether the housing slowdown will be sustained. It... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 12) Adjusting for the normal seasonal dip in house prices seen at this time of year, prices rose again in October. Therefore, the underlying trend in the CoreLogic measure of house prices is strongly... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index back below the supposed boom/bust level of 50 for the first time since July may not be due to superstorm Sandy. Instead, it may be a result of the uncertainty... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy sector in a jam A rebound in Canadian energy production, which was hit by temporary disruptions in the third quarter, should ensure that GDP growth rebounds to around 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. The... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2012) Canada's disappointing 0.6% annualised third-quarter GDP growth puts further pressure on the Bank of Canada to drop its tightening bias. We doubt, however, that this would be enough to prompt the Bank... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Concerns over student loans overdone The rapid rise in the value of outstanding student loans and the spike in the default rate have fuelled fears that student loans are the next bubble. Aside from the risk that excessive borrowing early... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the housing recovery the real deal? The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
