Canada Economics Weekly Is business uncertainty holding the economy back? The uncertainty created by the fragile global backdrop and the potential fight brewing over the US debt ceiling are hurting Canadian business investment, and will continue to hold the economy back in... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov. 12) November's paltry 0.1% m/m gain in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Overall, the data suggest that the risks to our 1.5% annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth lie... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov. 12) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $48.7bn in November, from $42.1bn, is not good news for fourth-quarter GDP growth. It looks like GDP growth was between 1.0% and 1... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Adding R&D will boost the level of US GDP The inclusion later this year of capitalised research and development (R&D) expenditure in the national accounts will boost the level of GDP by up to 3%, with most of that additional spending being... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Downward trend in housing investment will persist Housing starts continued to ease during the fourth quarter of last year, to an annualised 202,855, from 221,709 in the prior quarter. Nevertheless, it is possible that overall residential investment... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Fiscal cliff deal extends Mortgage Debt Relief Act The 11th hour deal to avert the fiscal cliff included a one-year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act. The Act, which frees homeowners from paying tax on forgiven mortgage principal, has become... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Hopes abound for an unlikely housing soft landing The sharp slowdown in existing home sales is grim news for the new housing industry, which continues to build above population requirements. We expect these growing demand and supply imbalances to... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling inflation another concern for policymakers The slump in Canadian inflation over the second half of last year makes it even more likely that the Bank of Canada will soon abandon any pretence of hiking interest rates in 2013. Headline CPI... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fight over debt ceiling likely to be even worse The 11th hour fiscal cliff deal to avert most of the scheduled tax increases was better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling and the scheduled spending cuts have... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) There is no denying the strength apparent in Canada's labour market at the end of 2012. Employment increased by nearly 40,000 in December, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-year low of 7.1%... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 155,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December is yet another month of job growth that is just about enough to keep pace with the underlying growth in the labour force, but not enough to drive... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The very modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.7 in December, from 49.5, illustrates that the factory sector ended last year still caught between the cross-fire of a global economic... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
