Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A brighter outlook for exporters Thanks to the recent pick up in overseas activity and the fall in the dollar, the outlook for US exporters has brightened. But without a major turnaround in economic activity in the euro-zone, export... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack 2013 off to a weak start In the end the looming fiscal cliff didn't appear to have any severe impact on the wider economy, with the growth rates of employment, retail sales and even durable goods orders all accelerating over... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in home prices still on the way The latest round of housing data released last week predictably led to more claims that the market is enjoying a soft landing because, even though home sales fell sharply over the second half of last... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Payroll tax hike will curtail consumption growth The expiry of the payroll tax cut could easily bring the acceleration in consumption growth over the second half of last year to a juddering halt this January. Some of the blow to real incomes will be... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's 1.6% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes is encouraging, though not strong enough to offset the previous month's decline of 2.2% m/m. All things considered, the risks to our... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec. 12) December’s surge in housing starts tops off an encouraging year for homebuilders. Given how far below normal levels starts remain even now, we expect further strong gains during 2013. 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will be dropped before year end We expect the Bank of Canada to continue justifying its tightening bias next week on the basis of high household debt. Before year end, however, we expect the Bank to drop talk of rate hikes. The weak... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus New mortgage rules won't hamper housing recovery The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule, and within that its definition of a qualified mortgage, will not hamper the housing recovery. Mortgage-dependent buyers aren’t playing... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov. 12) House prices rose again in November, both before and after applying seasonal adjustment. Consistent price increases throughout 2012 have started the process of lifting households out of negative... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses investing cautiously amidst uncertainty The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey indicates that, while more businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up as they plan to increase investment in machinery and equipment, their modest... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
