US Economics Weekly Lower gasoline prices a timely boost The encouraging noises emanating from Washington make it more likely, although it is still far from certain, that a deal to prevent the fiscal cliff will be reached and that any adverse impact on the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The annual rate of CPI inflation edged back up to 2.2% last month, from 2.0%, but will drop back before year-end thanks to the continued decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation remained unchanged... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal cliff still likely to be averted We still expect the newly re-elected President Obama and Congress to reach an agreement to avert most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that would otherwise kick in at the start of next... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage demand picking up? Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are restrictions on home buyers too onerous? Although federal regulatory tightening of mortgage insurance rules and other lending principles have upset housing, we believe the new restrictions on home buying are prudent rather than too onerous... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Focus quickly shifts to fiscal cliff negotiations Some have argued that the election result, which maintained the broad status quo of a divided Congress, was the worst possible outcome for the fiscal cliff negotiations. But as far as the fiscal cliff... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 84.9 in November, from 82.6, appears to have been driven by a combination of the recent drop back in gasoline prices and the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep. 12) September's trade report confirms that exports were a major drag on overall third-quarter GDP growth, with net exports subtracting possibly as much as three percentage points. This evidence, combined... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep. 12) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in September opens the door to an modest upward revision to third-quarter real GDP growth. The bigger picture is that the weak global backdrop will... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to slump next year Since early 2010, housing starts have been driven by the multi-unit sector, with single detached housing starts remaining broadly unchanged. The problem is that housing construction has been running... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
