Canada Chart Pack Inflation falls to three-year low Canada's headline annual inflation rate has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, suggesting that there is more slack in the economy than commonly perceived. With economic growth forecast to... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More work needed to reduce budget deficit The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec. 12) The US housing recovery showed no signs of slowing in the final stages of 2012. And the early signs are that these gains will be extended throughout 2013 as the economy continues its recovery. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks see rebound in demand for business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals an encouraging bounce back in demand for business loans, which suggests that investment growth could accelerate over the first half of this... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Increased house price optimism among consumers All of the major house prices indices posted gains in November, which means that prices have risen by between 5.6% and 7.4% over the past year. Moreover, realtors and consumers have been revising up... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower At a global level, stock markets have been buoyed by signs that economic outlook is improving. Unfortunately, held back by weak domestic demand, low inflation and narrowing interest rate differentials... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we wrong to shrug off the fall in GDP? Even after taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, we still don’t believe that the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter is much of a concern. Contractions in government spending and... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year high of 53.1 in January, from 50.2 in December, indicates that the improvement in global factory conditions, evident in the rebound in various... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence index points to better start to 2013 The recent improvement in small and medium sized business confidence points to a pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter, to around 2% annualised, roughly twice the pace of last quarter. We... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update West to lead house price growth in 2013 We’re expecting US house prices to rise by around 5% this year, but a closer look at the regional picture suggests that the gains will be most pronounced in the West. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov. 12) November's 0.3% m/m gain in GDP, following the slightly downward revised 0.1% advance the month before, almost insures that fourth-quarter GDP growth improved somewhat over the poor 0.6% annualised... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
