US Employment Report Preview Labour market recovery slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment rose by “only” 1.0 million in July, as the renewed spread of the virus started to weigh on the economy. With employment currently still 15 million below... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) & Euro-zone Unemployment (June) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for July echoes the message from other surveys that the recovery continued at the start of Q3. But it tells us little about how far... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - JobKeeper extension to keep lid on unemployment The government will extend the JobKeeper wage subsidy by six months. Unemployment benefits will be made less generous which should encourage many of those having dropped out of the labour force to... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May/Jun.) The smaller-than-expected fall in employment in May and evidence that the first wave of joblessness in the coronavirus crisis ended in June shows that the furlough scheme has been effective in... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) After a sharp contraction in Q1, the economy bounced back strongly in Q2, with the level of GDP reaching a new high. What’s more, the monthly activity and spending figures show that growth was still... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jun.) The labour force rose faster than employment in June, pushing up the unemployment rate. However, we think that employment will soon pull ahead so unemployment probably won’t rise any further. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Unemployment rate to drop back but remain elevated The unemployment rate, which at 12.3% is the highest among the major developed economies, should drop below 9% by December. We expect progress beyond then to be much slower, unless the hinted... 14th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone unemployment will only peak in mid-2021 Euro-zone unemployment now seems likely to peak at a lower rate and about a year later than we had previously forecast, mainly due to the widespread use of short-time working schemes. But the partial... 9th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wage growth weakened further in May, but we think household incomes are recovering as furloughed workers either return to work or receive their mandatory leave allowance. 7th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market casts a dark shadow over the recovery While there are signs that the economy is recovering more quickly than expected, a large rise in unemployment is on the horizon. This, combined with Brexit uncertainty and the possibility of further... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 4.8 million increase in non-farm payrolls in June provides further confirmation that the initial economic rebound has been far faster than we and most others anticipated. But that still leaves... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment set to rise further, but not as far as feared Given the success of the government’s job furlough scheme and the signs of a strong initial rebound in economic activity we now think that the unemployment rate will peak later, in June 2021 rather... 2nd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The trivial rise in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of short-time working schemes in protecting jobs but also an increase in “inactivity” as people have been unable to look for work... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While business conditions collapsed in the Q2 Tankan, with economic activity now recovering that probably marks the trough. And surprisingly resilient investment forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
