Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 245,000 in November underlines how the renewed surge in virus cases and restrictions is weighing on services demand, which will only intensify... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) Unusually big revisions to the back data show that the euro-zone labour market was in worse shape over the summer than previously indicated. The jobless rate now appears to be falling, but the recent... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Oct.) & Capex (Q3 2020) While the unemployment rate rose in October, with the job-to-applicant ratio edging up, it’s unlikely to rise much further. Meanwhile, capital spending data suggest that business investment may have... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains at risk of stalling We expect a further slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 400,000 in November, as the recovery in the employment-intensive restaurant and leisure sectors stall. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
