Asia Economics Weekly BoK to launch QE, labour market woes in Taiwan The Bank of Korea is likely to cut its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% and step up non-conventional support at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, today’s labour market figures from Taiwan show... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Furloughs prevent tsunami of layoffs, but second wave likely The government’s furlough scheme has prevented the UK economy from being engulfed by a tsunami-like first wave of unemployment. But a second wave will probably come once the reduction in the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) The headline labour market figures have not yet caught up with the fall in employment of between 500,000 and 1 million revealed in the timelier data for April. Given the shut down of so many... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The Q1 GDP data confirm that virus containment measures have caused much bigger declines in activity in some euro-zone countries than in others. Over the rest of the year, we think that there will be... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about short-time work schemes Wage subsidy schemes in place throughout the euro-zone have so far been effective at preventing a surge in unemployment. In this Update, we answer five questions about how these schemes will evolve as... 14th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Apr.) The small rise in the unemployment rate in April masks a sharp fall in employment and we still expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming months. 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth set for sharp slowdown Although employment should partially rebound once lockdown measures are lifted, the pandemic is still likely to result in a sustained increase in labour market slack, which will push wage growth... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The further fall in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in April underlines that consumption will be extremely weak across Q2. But while all components fell to new depths, this should mark the trough... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q1) The stability in wage growth in Q1 tells us little about the impact of the virus outbreak on the labour market and a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters is likely. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour market conditions even worse than they look The labour market is in a far worse place than even the bleak headlines suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 13% in April, but it would be 30% if we included all the people that lost jobs or did not... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s employment slump was only half as bad as feared. While the worst for GDP seems to be behind us, the unemployment rate could still rise in May, as the 1.7 million people who have dropped out of... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The loss of 20.5 million jobs in April was largely as expected based on the tsunami of jobless claims and, although the unemployment rate only climbed to 14.7%, slightly below expectations, that was... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth slowed sharply in March and with the unemployment rate set to rise considerably over the coming months we think it will turn deeply negative before long. 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
