Employment to decline in December

The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into lockdown this week. The accommodation and food services sector shed 48,000 jobs in October as the earlier restrictions in Ontario and Quebec took their toll. That was admittedly better than we expected based on the relationship with the OpenTable data so far this year, but the upside surprise may have reflected the relatively early timing of the October Labour Force Survey (LFS). Either way, the more recent slump bodes ill for November and particularly December. Annual growth in restaurant visits slowed from -49% in the first half of November to -63% this weekend and, following the lockdowns imposed in Toronto and Peel, slumped to -72% on Monday. The latest leg-down will not be captured in the November LFS, so it will probably show a modest rise in total employment. But amid signs that even more restrictions are on the way, we expect the December LFS to show a decline in overall employment of 150,000.