Japan Chart Pack Nationwide state of emergency touch and go Off the back of the weak Q1 GDP data, we now expect output to only rise 2% across 2021. The economy is unlikely to recover much in Q2 as cases are close to record highs and calls for a nationwide... 19th May 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The strength in wage growth in Q1 was partly due to one-off factors which will fade in the year ahead, but we still think the tightening in the labour market will see wage growth rise in earnest... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 but continued progress on reducing Covid infections and administering vaccines suggests that the region’s economic recovery is underway. 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) Today’s data release suggests that the labour market is now on the front foot. Admittedly, the unemployment rate may still rise over the rest of this year. But this will probably be due to people re... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Focus Will we start working less? The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors... 13th May 2021 · 19 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more muted 266,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is a clear disappointment but, with much of the high-frequency data – including jobless claims – still improving rapidly, we doubt it... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The third coronavirus wave caused the labour market recovery to go into reverse in April and, with no imminent sign of the restrictions being eased, there is little chance of a meaningful rebound this... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2021) Wage growth turned positive for the first time since the pandemic began in March and we think it will accelerate further next month due to favourable base effects. Further ahead wage growth should... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery showing early signs of labour shortages The re-opening of Israel’s economy since March has driven a sharp tightening of labour market conditions and a growing share of firms are reporting labour shortages. This appears to be concentrated in... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential output by around 2.5%. But this will be partly offset by higher productivity growth due to increased usage of technology and more employees... 6th May 2021 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
