Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The rebound in the Q3 Tankan fell short of expectations and suggests that the recovery could be protracted. And while the survey indicates that the labour market will soon turn the corner, firms’... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone avoid a labour market “cliff edge”? Short-time work schemes are not being used as much as they were in the spring, but they still account for about 5% of the labour force. So as euro-zone governments reduce support for jobs (in the way... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Aug.) August’s labour market data were much stronger than most had anticipated and we think that employment will continue to rise. 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP showed that the plunge in economic activity in the second quarter was broad-based, with investment and exports faring particularly poorly. The rapid rebound in Q3... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised) Wage growth improved in July and household incomes are likely to rebound further as more workers who lost their jobs during the state of emergency find employment again. Meanwhile, the second estimate... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Back to school boost for the economy The reopening of schools this week could give a boost to GDP of around 5% as output in the education sector returns to normal and parents who have had to provide childcare get back to work. 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
