Employment gains to be far larger in June and July The unexpected 290,000 rise in employment in May was driven by Quebec, where restrictions on activity were lifted early in the month. As the other three most populous provinces lifted restrictions... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in Italian unemployment will soon reverse As the crisis in Italy escalated, record numbers of disillusioned jobseekers dropped out of the labour force, causing the unemployment rate to fall. Now that the lockdown is being lifted and activity... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How did we get employment so badly wrong? The unexpected 2.5 million rebound in nonfarm payroll employment in May, against a consensus expectation of a 7.5 million decline, has generated a lot of speculation that the figures were either... 9th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Wage growth turned negative in April at the height of efforts to contain the virus, and we expect wages to fall further over the coming months. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The surprise 2.5 million rise in payroll employment last month indicates that the process of rehiring began sooner than the jobless claims figures suggested. With more states moving to loosen their... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (May) The 290,000 increase in employment bodes well for GDP in May, particularly with hours worked increasing at an even faster rate. Employment is likely to rise by even more in June as further... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Employment income to rebound in H2 Many firms have furloughed employees during the state of emergency and stopped paying wages. But with the economy now opening up again and the government’s employment subsidy scheme starting to be... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone and Germany Unemployment (Apr./May) The remarkably small increase in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of the government job subsidy schemes and an exodus from the labour force in Italy. We suspect that the unemployment... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMIs show that the recovery in activity extended into last month and appears to have broadened out into parts of manufacturing that were previously struggling. But there are few signs of a marked... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The huge fall in industrial production and retail sales in April support our below-consensus forecast that the economy will contract by 12% q/q this quarter. The unemployment rate is also set to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview As bad as it gets? We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by 9 million in May, taking the cumulative decline since February close to 30 million and pushing the unemployment rate above 20%. 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Hours worked plunge to 25-year low The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not... 26th May 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to launch QE, labour market woes in Taiwan The Bank of Korea is likely to cut its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% and step up non-conventional support at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, today’s labour market figures from Taiwan show... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
