Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The further surge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in October suggests that Q4 could surprise to the upside. However, further ahead the recovery will slow as the economy gets closer to pre-virus... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Employment growth slowed sharply in October, but the 84,000 gain was still impressive given that the renewed coronavirus-related restrictions caused employment to fall in some sectors. Moreover, the... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The 638,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in October is stronger than it looks as it included a 147,000 drop in temporary Census employment and, alongside the big fall in the unemployment rate, it... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lockdown déjà vu The second lockdown will probably reduce the level of GDP in November by about 8.0% m/m. That would mean GDP in November would be about 15.5% below February’s level and might not regain its pre-crisis... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP to fall by about 3% q/q in Q4 The downside risks to our forecasts are crystallising and we now think that the euro-zone economy will contract by about 3% in Q4. The ECB looks set to loosen policy in December, and we will be... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.) Wage growth improved in September and should recover further over the coming months as overtime hours continue to rebound – besides a hit from a fall in end-of-year bonus payments. Meanwhile, the rise... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & ADP Employment (Oct.) Although the markets remain firmly focused on the fallout from the election, the 365,000 rise in the ADP measure of private employment in October indicates that the labour market recovery is starting... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in New Zealand in Q3 means the unemployment rate is close to its peak and we expect the labour market to tighten next year. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole We estimate that the second England-wide lockdown will cause GDP to fall by around 8% m/m in November, prompt the unemployment rate to climb to a peak of 9% next year, contrib`ute to the government... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.) The post-lockdown rebound in euro-zone GDP was stronger than anticipated, which provides some hope that eventually things may get back to normal more rapidly than feared. But in the meantime, the... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
