Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame

With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our Q1 2021 forecast, further ahead we’ve revised up our forecasts significantly. That’s because we now assume that one or more effective vaccines will be widely available by the middle of next year. The positive vaccine news of recent weeks also raises the chances of the Tokyo Olympics going ahead in July 2021 at full capacity. Unfortunately though, any “Olympics boost” to the economy will be tiny. Webinar Invite: The European outlook – From lockdowns to vaccines Thursday, 3 December Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham will lead this special briefing with colleagues Jessica Hinds, Jack Allen-Reynolds and David Oxley to discuss Europe’s economy under lockdown. The team will preview the ECB’s December meeting, assess Sweden’s attempts to control the pandemic, and look ahead to the potential economic impact of vaccines in 2021. Complimentary registration here.