GDP to rise from May as provinces start re-opening There are signs that activity was already rebounding in the second half of April and this week some provinces began the slow process of re-opening. It is likely to be a long time before most... 6th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in New Zealand in Q2 largely predates the impact of Covid-19 on the New Zealand economy. We expect the unemployment rate to surge in Q2 as the lockdown... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Catastrophe We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%. That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Italy’s economy experienced a bigger contraction than the euro-zone average in Q1. And the closure of non-essential businesses at the end of March means that it is set for a much deeper downturn in Q2... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.) The blizzard of depressing economic data released this morning confirms that the euro-zone economy was in freefall at the end of March, with GDP dropping by a record amount throughout the region. This... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Consumer confidence sank to a record low in April. That lends further credence to the view that a consumption-led plunge in economic activity is underway this quarter. We are forecasting a 12% q/q... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much will labour markets suffer? The coronavirus crisis is likely to cause unemployment rates to jump by 5%-points or so across most of the region in Q2 and we think the labour market fallout could be much worse in Turkey. However... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage subsidies to temper surge in unemployment Most of the fresh spending in PM Abe’s fiscal package will not provide meaningful support to employment. But as was the case during the financial crisis, the government’s employment adjustment fund... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The unemployment rate rose in March and it’s set to spike much higher over the coming months. 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Hit to employment to prevent a perfect V-shaped recovery The big declines in retail sales volumes in March and in the PMI activity surveys in April make it clear that the slump in activity has been unprecedented in terms of its speed and its severity. We... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly True unemployment at least double official figure The leadership has elevated “ensuring employment” to the top of its list of priorities. Unemployment is still low officially but the true rate is probably double the official figure. 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update How bad is the fallout in the labour market? The unemployment rate will surge to more than 15% in April but, unlike in a normal economic cycle, the high proportion of people on a temporary layoff leaves us hopeful that rate will come down... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
