Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers in May supports our view that household incomes will rebound in the second half of the year. And while industrial production plunged again in May, it... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly NZ activity back to normal, but labour market is not As New Zealand has almost entirely eliminated the virus, domestic restrictions have been eased which has allowed activity and consumption to return to normal levels. We have therefore raised our GDP... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview The long road back We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by five million in June, as more furloughed employees returned to work. That would be another encouraging sign of the strength of the initial... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s 2009 jobs miracle be repeated? Euro-zone countries seeking to avoid a surge in unemployment have sought to replicate Germany’s short-time working scheme that served it well during the global financial crisis. Germany’s experience... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Sugar-high in consumption may not last Consumer spending is bouncing back more strongly than we had anticipated. However, that partly reflects pent-up demand and the strong support from government initiatives. Employment income has slumped... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy bouncing back strongly Data released this week have shown the Australian economy is rebounding faster than we had expected. While labour market data for May showed a further decline in employment, a fall in the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (May) Employment fell further in May but with the economy opening up again it should start to rebound in June. As such, the unemployment rate probably won’t rise any further. 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update ILO be damned? The latest data highlighted a diverging trend between the two main measures of unemployment. Neither measure is perfect, but at least the claimant count is timelier than the ILO measure. Until the ILO... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery The Canada Emergency Response Benefit has paid out far more than we expected and household income was probably broadly unchanged in the second quarter. Together with the confirmation today that the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The surge in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q1 primarily reflects a collapse in hours worked as lockdowns restricted economic activity at the end of the quarter. This is likely to be repeated... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr./May) The remarkably small rise in unemployment in April suggests that the unemployment rate may not increase quite as far as we had anticipated. Even so, bigger rises are almost certainly on the way as the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further signs of improvement in Korea Despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate last month, there are signs that the Korean labour market has turned a corner. This adds to evidence that the economy has now bottomed out. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Employment gains to be far larger in June and July The unexpected 290,000 rise in employment in May was driven by Quebec, where restrictions on activity were lifted early in the month. As the other three most populous provinces lifted restrictions... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
