Canada Economic Outlook

Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts

We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in...

26th March 2024 · 14 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The Central Bank of Nigeria continued its hiking cycle today, raising rates by 200bp to 24.75%, providing further evidence that officials are fighting aggressively to tackle the inflation problem and...

26th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%) will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace of the...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Set for a slow recovery

Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Sri Lanka: easing cycle has further to go

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka today cut interest rates by a further 50bps and hinted at further rate cuts to come. With inflationary pressures under control and the economic recovery struggling, more...

26th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact

While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up...

26th March 2024 · 12 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Population growth to plunge

The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to...

25th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand...

25th March 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Your latest monetary policy questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the US Fed and Bank of England policy meetings and comments by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde. (See a...

25th March 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

Inflation: From too high to too low

After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI...

25th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise

The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in...

22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Policy support a temporary prop to construction

Local government financing vehicles are ramping up land purchases to build more public housing, while developers are being given more financing to accelerate work on unfinished projects. This may...

22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read