India Economics Weekly

Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk

Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting...

5th April 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI policy pivot creeping closer

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central...

5th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA

The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of...

5th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Ueda signals low bar for further rate hikes

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today indicated that it wouldn't take much for the Bank to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. The extreme labour shortages coupled with persistent...

5th April 2024 · 5 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June

Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp...

4th April 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of...

4th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.)

Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain...

4th April 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: Central bank to cut rates further to boost growth

Vietnam’s banks are likely to remain cautious this year and both credit and GDP growth are likely to come in below trend. The central bank will have to cut rates further to stimulate demand.

4th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation

We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost...

4th April 2024 · 15 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Case for cuts strengthening

While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The...

3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Mar. 24)

China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the...

3rd April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase

The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has...

3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting

ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage...

3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Excess Savings RIP

We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in...

3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM easing cycle to broaden out

GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed...

3rd April 2024 · 26 mins read