Africa Economics Weekly Rates preview: Nigeria to hike, South Africa to hold The South African Reserve Bank looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Stars aligning for a June interest rate cut The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE preparing the ground for interest rate cuts Two key developments at this week’s Bank of England policy meeting implied the Bank is shifting closer to cutting interest rates. And more striking were the comments by the Bank Governor in an... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 stagnation, rate cut in June likely but not done deal Christine Lagarde’s comments this week suggest that a first ECB rate cut in June remains most likely but there is a significant risk that the easing cycle will start later. Meanwhile, surveys released... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ won’t hike rates any further With underlying inflation continuing to moderate, we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to follow up the ending of negative interest rates with further policy rate hikes. But while the Bank has kept its... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some global market implications of BoJ tightening Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
