Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE Oct/Nov decisions – On hold but then what? 2nd November 2023, 3:00PM GMT Senior economists from across our euro-zone, US and UK services held an online briefing on the October/November meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England and the latest messaging from their...
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2023) EM GDP has held up well this year, but we expect growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. Inflation has surprised to the upside recently, which will delay the start of interest rate cutting cycles... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update “One and done” in Indonesia In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.0%) in an attempt to support the currency. But there is a good chance this will be a case of “one and done”. Our... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch From pause to plateau There is little doubt that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged next week, with the deposit rate on hold at 4%. Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won’t... 19th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update First signs of a dovish shift at the Bank of Korea The Bank of Korea today left its policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%), and while Governor Rhee left open the possibility of further interest rate hikes, there are signs that some members of the central... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on hold, may push back QT end date The business surveys point to rising recession risks and core inflation pressures were muted in September, suggesting that there is little chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s QT plans may not survive rate cuts next year The ongoing outflow of funds from the Fed’s reverse repo facility has completely offset the downward pressure on bank reserves from quantitative tightening (QT), suggesting that the Fed could continue... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Output rapidly falling below potential The weakness of GDP growth in the second and third quarters means that the Bank of Canada is likely to make a marked re-assessment of its output gap estimates in its October Monetary Policy Report... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q3 Inflation review – Is the RBA done hiking interest rates? 1698202800 Economists from our ANZ and Markets teams held an online briefing following the release of Australian Q3 inflation data.
Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
