Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks are done tightening

The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make...

10th November 2023 · 6 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook

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Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There...

9th November 2023 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Credit data point to recessions in DMs

Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria...

9th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen...

8th November 2023 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think...

8th November 2023 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds

Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning...

7th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA’s next move will be down

As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the...

7th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 23)

7th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Central banks at a plateau, but what next and when?

We held a Drop-In last week to explain our thoughts on the latest policy communications from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England following their decisions to leave rates on hold. (See the recording here...

6th November 2023 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks

The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks...

3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown

There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have...

3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s fiscal worries, Panama protests, Colombia rates

Fiscal risks have reared their head again in Brazil amid comments from President Lula that the government may no longer aim for a balanced primary budget in 2024. In the near-term, any fiscal slippage...

3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read