Europe Economics Update

SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts

Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think...

14th March 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune

At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer

Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in...

14th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will...

13th March 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB to maintain a bond portfolio indefinitely

The ECB’s new operational framework for implementing monetary policy, announced this afternoon, was largely in line with our expectations and has no immediate implications for monetary policy. But it...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Fed Watch

Better inflation data needed for June rate cut

Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still...

13th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this...

13th March 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The naira’s march to fair value

The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economic Outlook

World-beating growth set to continue

India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third...

13th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Negative rates and YCC will end this month

With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting...

13th March 2024 · 11 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation

Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy...

12th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts

The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect...

12th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read