Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to a 31-month low of 4.3% y/y in the first half of October masked a worrying pick-up in services inflation. This, combined with rapid wage growth and... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: FX worries mean rate cuts unlikely for now The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today and, while its communications provided little firm policy guidance, policymakers clearly have one eye on the currency and will... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Third-quarter strength unlikely to last The apparent strength of third-quarter GDP growth won’t convince the Fed to resume hiking its policy rate, particularly with the ongoing surge in long-term bond yields presenting a growing threat to... 20th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, debt problems, South Africa CPI Sovereign debt restructuring discussions between Zambia and Ghana and their bilateral creditors have been encouraging, but challenging talks with private lenders remain. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will policymakers react to weaker currencies? A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems. If Asian currencies remain under downward pressure we expect policymakers to step up their... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set for a hold, new r* projections Further evidence of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures in this week's data releases suggest that a "hold" is now a done deal for next week's ECB's meeting. Meanwhile, the tentative... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields illustrates that the full impact of Fed tightening is still feeding through, and we continue to expect economic growth to slow sharply over the coming... 20th October 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market bolsters case for a final rate hike The decline in Australia's labour force in September reinforces our view that net migration is providing less of a boost to labour supply than many had anticipated. Indeed, NAB's Q3 business survey... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Profit boost from weak yen helps sustain virtuous cycle As we had anticipated, the weak yen isn’t providing a big boost to Japan’s export volumes. Instead, its impact is mainly felt via higher yen revenue and costs. With firms having passed on the full... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Shunto will result in base pay hike well above 2% Japan’s trade unions are demanding an even larger pay hike in the upcoming spring wage negotiations and we believe that the talks will result in a base pay hike of around 2.5%. While the Bank of Japan... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
