UK Economics Update BoE doubles down on signal that rate cuts are far away The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to leave interest rates on hold again today, at 7.00%, was accompanied by communications which leave the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Nov. 2023) The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle probably at an end We think that the decision today by Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% signals the end of its tightening cycle. Contrary to the Bank’s communication, we do not expect a hike in... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia Monetary Policy Decision (November) Despite the sharp downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left policy rates unchanged (at 3.0%) today. We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold for the rest... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s focus will shift to rate cuts before long By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Faster wage growth should give BoJ confidence to tighten With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest... 1st November 2023 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade The October PMIs for Emerging Asia generally dropped back further inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been update with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Tight policy and a weak external environment will constrain growth over the coming quarters. 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to another energy shock? An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank will end negative interest rates in early-2024 The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January. 31st October 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
