China Economic Outlook

Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer

China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

25th June 2024 · 15 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Next government to benefit from economic tailwind

The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth...

25th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024)

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

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Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (June 2024)

The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow...

24th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024)

The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro

Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn

The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs show weaker activity but resilient price pressures

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in most major advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2. But weaker services activity hasn’t translated to softer price pressures, meaning central banks...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF review, cautious central banks

The eighth review of Argentina’s IMF programme published this week is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. That said, the Fund called on Argentine authorities to take...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Thai budget boost, Singapore’s cooling jobs market

Most countries in Asia are planning to tighten fiscal policy as they aim to put government finances on a more secure footing following the pandemic. One exception to this is Thailand, which this week...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2024)

The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently stagnated this month. Meanwhile, aggregate...

21st June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024)

June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read