Japan Economics Weekly

Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike

The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s Trump challenge

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Productivity & ULC (Q3)

The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y in October, was driven entirely by a jump in agricultural price inflation. Core inflation edged down last month which...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will start cutting rates early next year

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the...

5th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry

While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut

The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct .24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is...

1st November 2024 · 1 min read