Latin America Economics Update

Growth in the Andes to disappoint

The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

With headline inflation still at target and given the Bank’s recent emphasis on the need to ensure that GDP growth and the labour market pick up again, the upside surprise to core inflation in October...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

In response to Donald Trump’s election win and the likelihood that his policies will be inflationary, we have revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range in 2025 by 50bp, to...

18th November 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank of Canada yet to shake off inflation risks

The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Inflation surprise not enough to prevent December cut

While the hotter-than-expected October price data serve as a reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, we don't think this is enough to prevent a December rate cut. This could...

15th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct' 24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors

State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike

The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the...

15th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2

We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (November 2024)

The latest data have shown some improvement in global activity with the US holding up well, the euro-zone exceeding weak expectations and China starting to respond to policy support. However, forward...

14th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read