Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal

A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts

The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget

Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (May)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past impact of energy rebates

This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to stick to hawkish tone

Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy.

13th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (May)

With the May producer price data also coming in weaker than expected, we now estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by only 0.11% m/m last month, which would take the annual core PCE inflation...

13th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures...

13th June 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June)

Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to remain strong we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the...

13th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields

Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that economic activity has continued to improve in the past...

12th June 2024 · 0 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (May 2024)

Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing cycle. We remain comfortable with our long-held view that...

12th June 2024 · 2 mins read