Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity? ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and... 25th October 2024 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch 2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen... 24th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat? 1730386800 Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024) The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024) The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 1730253600 Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
