US Economics Update

Residual seasonality something to note, not fear

Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Interest rates will be higher in this cycle

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2024)

CPI inflation fell in September, as an increase in food inflation was outweighed by further decreases in energy and core inflation. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened further on the back of...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak

The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms

Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans

The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes

President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Sep)

Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices

Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge

The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of...

11th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Korea Policy Rate (October 2024)

11th October 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs...

10th October 2024 · 1 min read

ECB Watch

Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming

A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid...

10th October 2024 · 7 mins read