Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Slowdown in activity not due to supply shortages

Some commentators have been arguing that the recent weakness in economic activity reflects a shortfall of supply rather than weaker demand. However, business surveys suggest that supply constraints...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (May 24)

The jump in headline inflation in May mostly reflected electricity price hikes that have further to run. By contrast, underlying inflation continued to slow rapidly and it will fall below 2% over the...

21st June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What La Niña means for Latin America

There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing

The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (May.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

A little good news under the hood of services inflation

Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

18th June 2024 · 1 min read