Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in the coming months too. Consensus expectations for the start of the easing cycle have shifted towards our own view (early 2025). And while inflation should fall more sharply next year (from 49% currently to around 25% by end-2025), the easing cycle is likely to proceed more slowly than most are currently expecting.
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