Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some... 11th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen strengthens case for year-end rate hike The policies proposed by Donald Trump may well end up providing a small net boost to Japan’s economy. While higher tariffs will result in a small fall in export volumes, it now seems likely that the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Productivity & ULC (Q3) The BLS finally incorporated the upward revisions to its labour compensation estimates into the productivity and unit labour costs data, and the results are likely to trigger some inflation anxiety... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
